US $ hits 1900COP

bickerss says on Aug 27, 2008, 11:19:

Excellent news - for me anyway!

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paulr says on Aug 27, 2008, 11:31:

I rest my case on all those poeple who wrote long threads telling people exactly what was going to happen with the dollor against the peso didn´t and don´t have a clue what was/will happen to the $. Where is PanthDave now?

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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sanandressi says on Aug 27, 2008, 11:59:

Maybe 3,000 next May when we return for a visit.....what goes up must come down and vice versa...

"FDR in 1929 as president went on televison..." Joe Biden DEMOCRAT VP candidate who just keeps on giving! FDR elected 1932 and television appeared in the 1950''s LOL

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paulr says on Aug 27, 2008, 12:05:

And maybe i will win the lotto or find pickseys in my garden.

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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rocinante says on Aug 27, 2008, 13:17:

"What goes up must come down." And there you have it - a guy with a handle on FX.

I am running to the ATM every day with 4 ATM cards. Gotta love it.

So paulr what is your take from a financial standpoint on the recent currency trends between COP and the USD? Are you more of a quant as opposed to the technical "what goes up must come down" chartists? Are you tracking the recent interest rate swings? Just curious.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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gimmedub says on Aug 27, 2008, 13:27:

peso will drop back to 2100 by end of the year... colombia stifled it's economy by high interest rates, the US slowdown is really a GLOBAL slowdown... europe is next then those booming third world economies are going to bottom out; feds are planning to raise interest rates reducing the gap between colombian and US interest rates and finally if barack wins, gets outta iraq, starts to fix healthcare, energy, and social security, then the investments will return to the US... sorry colombia - what goes up will go down!

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paulr says on Aug 27, 2008, 13:51:

I don´t pretend to know much about it, unlike others who think they know what´s going to happen and don´t have a clue as they can´t see into the future. Now, if we could see into the future, we would know a lot more, no?

What i mean to say is, if you vote in another idiot to rule your country and that idiot and his bosses decide to make another "terrorist" attack with his rich friends or attack another country for no reason, the dollor wont be worth shit in a few years.

"I am running to the ATM every day with 4 ATM cards" why are you doing that when Gimmedub says "peso will drop back to 2100 by end of the year"
That just doesn´t make sense.

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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paulr says on Aug 27, 2008, 13:54:

My financial standpoint on the recent currency trends is to check currency rates now and again and not to waste my time reading bullshite, because it is what it is and there is f all i can do about it.

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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rocinante says on Aug 27, 2008, 14:04:

At least you have an opinion señor Dub. Awesome. I'd say the Fed raising interest rates is a safe bet. The interest rate yield differential is muy importante. The Colombia economy has been solid and steady (OK a bit fast). Stifling with high interest rates? Care to expand upon "stifling" with say GDP or another such number?

But I don't think international investors looking to make money are interested in US healthcare and US social security. Energy is a global thing and Obama is not going to control OPEC. The US is not going to be pulling out of Iraq any time soon or if that does happen it will be to get into Iran with Israel. Expect a big attack and a war worthy of making the Fed Reserve banks very rich. That's the plan.

COP is still a bargain at 1500. Why was it there 2 months ago? How did the Colombian Central bank intervene at that point?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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asdfn says on Aug 27, 2008, 14:07:

theres another quote you learn trying to pick tops and bottoms, especially in leveraged financial instruments like currencies -

the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

currencies can trend for a long, long time



funny thing, I bought some air tickets but at first decided to wait because the dollar jumped and the rate they were quoting me wasnt very good, it hadnt updated or something. I checked back the next day and found a good rate, but the fare was 200k higher lol.

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BillBigD says on Aug 27, 2008, 14:09:

Remember the guru's that claimed US slowdown didn't not matter to Colombia. Most are gone and/or closed up shop.
rocinante- Get it while it is hot, US banks having fun with $, gold and Silver.

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rocinante says on Aug 27, 2008, 14:20:

I've been trading options on MOS.

The US slowdown has been in effect for a few years. During those years the Colombian economy has been on the upswing. I have always said the US slowdown doesn't hurt the Colombian economy because 70% of Colombian exports to the US are the non cyclical comodities: coffee, bananas and coal. Flowers took a hit but are still being exported.

Am I missing some econoimic numbers?

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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BillBigD says on Aug 27, 2008, 14:28:

MOS POT CF all have been fun options trades. Include Nat GAS in your trading. Some are up 25% in 4 days. (Stock not options)
The banking problems are getting worse and worse, and gas pricing only started getting really ugly in FEB not years ago.

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rocinante says on Aug 27, 2008, 14:41:

MON swings with MOS as well.

"Remember the guru's that claimed US slowdown didn't not matter to Colombia."

I was addressing that line. The US slowdown has been going on for a few years - it's big, banks are closing, housing in the dumps, unemployment is high, the dollar is getting crushed and the stock market, while volatile (good for me and you) is not exactly recovering from Fed moves over the past three years. Bear Stearns gone and Lehman's got one foot in the grave and another on a banana peel. Freddie Fannie in the toilet, GDP flat, FDIC ready to sneak over the border and join the witness protection program.

The Colombian upswing has been going on for years. I wasn't specifically thinking about energy in particular.

In the past (6 months ago?) on this forum some mental midget proclaimed that since US was in a recession (that's not the point), that Colombia would end up getting into a recession as well since Colombia depends heavily on the US as a trading partner. I did not agree. I'll say it again. The US slowdown matters little to Colombia - has not affected Colombia in the last three recessions - why now? Americans always drink Coffee, eat bananas and burn coal.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 27, 2008, 15:05:

BillBigD,

I don't recall many people saying that Colombia wouldn't be affected by a US slowdown, in fact I thought nearly everybody said that it would, looking up gringoloids notes on it at he time. There was 6 options and only number six was no affect on Colombia, which just had a few names it , where as the other five options had most of the names.

I was in the limited impact on Colombia and said that I expect that Colombias GDP would slow down by a percentage point or two, I haven't changed my views by much since then but will increase the slow down down to 2 to 3 percentage points, not due to the US problems but the other problems in the world.

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rocinante says on Aug 27, 2008, 15:07:

Agreed ctg. Cost of energy is the other problems in the world.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 27, 2008, 15:11:

paulr,

If you aren't interested in reading about F/X rates, you seem to chime in a lot about them?

I see no reason why the Colombian peso should weaken against the dollar presently, daily, monthly movements unless you are trading the currency mean nothing, Colombia will export more and more commodities which will more than cancel out other imports, so as long as the econony is not mis managed, I only expect the peso to go one way.

BUT it NEVER goes in a straight line, I also don't believe the appreciation will be has we have seen over the last 5.5 years when the peso started appreciating, because it had over shot its fair value.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 27, 2008, 15:17:

gimmedub,

"feds are planning to raise interest rates reducing the gap between colombian and US interest rates and finally if barack wins, gets outta iraq, starts to fix healthcare, energy, and social security, then the investments will return to the US... sorry colombia - what goes up will go down!"

I am afraid I don't see most of what you are talking about above having ANY real affect on Colombia, there is little portfolio money in Colombia because of the higher interest rates.

Most investments in Colombia would be here anyway, its not as though that the option is invest in Colombia or the US, its a BIG world.

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rocinante says on Aug 27, 2008, 15:17:

The recent (past 5 weeks) COP weakness is the Colombian Central Bank. Let them do their thing as I go to the ATM. I just don't want the COP to take a hit because there is economic and political unrest in Colombia. The COP has been gaining because of the overall "flourish" of the country. If banks and interest rates and currency speculators (Remember COP is a thin float) can keep the COP/USD in the 2000 range I am happy. As long as it's not because the FARC has taken over Bogotá.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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BillBigD says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:02:

Well guys without naming names I think you can clearly guess two of the guys I am talking about. They are not here anymore and certainly were the strongest voices on Colombia
Housing problems did start two years ago but as late as last year people thought places like Miami and Vegas would turn around. That big Real Estate guy from Colombia that had all those places in miami certainly thought so.
Banks starting failing just this year. Dow and SPX was at it high in OCT. It does take awhile for things to pan out.
CTG- I think you live in London correct? Have you noticed a difference in the last six months.
When Gas was at $4.20 to $4.30 a gallon things started really slowing here in the states.
I get my news on Colombia's health from Bloomberg and from what I read Colombia is slowing. Am I wrong?

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gringoloid says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:03:

ctg bound.......with all due respects, I believe you were in with the number 5's which has nothing to do with colombia. It's the number fours that said the recession in the united states would have not effect colombia 'greatly'.


4. Recession in the USA, not affecting Colombia greatly; i.e., not much worse than we are now in Colombia, but maybe a little worse in the usa with a nasty bite of inflation, unemployment, and will work itself out in 2009.

5. Mild recession in the usa, not much worse than what is going on now in the usa........just a problem with the housing crisis that will work itself out .

6. What's a recession?
.
.
.
.Ctg Bound says on Mar 2, 2008, 06:27: flag
My views are:

The USA could enter a shallow technical recession, two quarters of negative growth, Jan-June 2008, but I don't see much more than that. The tax rebates will add 0.6% plus to GDP in the second half of the year, also interest rates cuts don’t start to kick in for about 9 months, which again is the second half of 2008

Colombia is unlikely to affected in any meaningful way by the USA problems, the majority of Colombia’s exports are internationally tradable commodities, more of them just go to the USA as the transport costs are les than shipping them further a field.

A light recession to slow growth in the USA, will still be sucking in plenty of imports from around the world, the only thing that it will do, is slow down the import growth to the USA, due to this I in fact see the USA problems as POSTIVE, helping to cool down many developing economies around the world who were growing to quickly and creating inflationary problems in their home Countries, China, India & others.

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paulr says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:15:

It´s not the F/X rates i´m chiming on about, i couldn´t care less about the $, it´s the bullcrap that´s on here about it, it´s going up down and sideways b ollocks.

People flexing their Financial knowledge muscles, to me it just seems like people are just writing down everything that they have just read and take it as fact because they want people to think they have some intelligence....intelligence doesn´t come from reading shite in the financial times or what ever website you get that "facts" from.

ha ha ok boys, that´s my chiming done for today, i´ll leave something to read here for tomorrow morning to get my bowels moving.

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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rocinante says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:18:

And then there's people who do websites. If I read the financial times and the WSJ I'd probably know more. The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

Mr. Big BillD says he's heard on Bloomberg that Colombian numbers are flat or negative. I did not know this. I've been out of touch.

I earn mostly US dollars and I live in Colombia. I look at the exchange rate almost every hour. When I lived in the US and earned US dollars I didn't give a crap about exchange rates - only inflation, interest rates, taxes and ther cost of energy. To John Q Public these are the only things that matter.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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goin_south says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:21:

paulr.... THERE IS 1 RECESSION... that I know for fact!
and...
....is on de top o my head :-))

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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gringoloid says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:32:

paulr........amen

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paulr says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:42:

Please don´t encourage me.

rocinante writes proudly at the bottom of his comments.. "World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Peso 1400 by November" Feb 5, 2008.

What ever you read rocinante, it´s not a cristal ball unless something big happens before then.

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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Saltador says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:46:

roci,
Are you still firm in your belief that it will be 1400 pesos to the dollar in two months?
I do give you props for documenting your prediction, however, I don't think it's possible.

P.S. You may also get the Obama forecast wrong, which at the time you made your prediction (Feb 08) it looked like a mortal lock.

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rocinante says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:54:

Banks and airlines merged, Lloyds of London and other international insurance companies are all gearing up for a democrat since over a year ago. The big things have happened. THe general public just don't know what those things are.

If I were to read, the polls say the two candidates are neck and neck and that the election is a toss up. I don't read all that much and what I say goes against what is written.

Of course as far as I'm concened the US president doesn't run the country so it doesn't really matter anyway. No biggie.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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billyb says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:54:

Mama bear sharpening her claws on the hills of the caucasus might be conspiring with McCain to reverse that mortal lock.

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paulr says on Aug 27, 2008, 16:58:

WHat about this for a prediction..Obama to win but will be assassinated within a year.

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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billyb says on Aug 27, 2008, 17:01:

didn't they bust few nuts earlier this week plotting to kill him in Colorado? Although I would say that he is a lot safer now that Hillary won't be his VP.

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goin_south says on Aug 27, 2008, 17:53:

*US president doesn't run the country so it doesn't really matter anyway. No biggie.*

jjeje.. I think rocinante has been reading 'g_s'..jje

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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poco says on Aug 27, 2008, 17:55:

Only 700 pesos more and things will be about right,, maybe not,, inflation is a problem.

"When you men get home and face an anti-war protester, look him in the eyes and shake his hand. Then, wink at his girlfriend, because she knows she's dating a pussy." Quote - General Tommy Franks

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goin_south says on Aug 27, 2008, 17:55:

(Ol Man McCain has a damn good sense of humour; I almost neva watch de Tube, but caught a few moments of him on Jay Leno last night... funny, self-deprecating humour... por unos momentos.)

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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gringoloid says on Aug 27, 2008, 18:24:

can the length of a recession in the u.s. be a factor in determining whether or not a prolonged recession will have an effect on colombia as opposed to a shorter recession?

in a sharp economic downturn scenario, will the usa and china buy the same amounts of commodities? if the demand decreases, does the price stay the same?

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scumbuster says on Aug 27, 2008, 19:04:

Im now debating weather to transfer money for my vacation in October or wait hoping it will continue to go up.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 27, 2008, 19:16:

BillBigD,

I live in Colombia, for 7 years now.

GDP is expected to be 4.5-5% this year.

Some industrial growth numbers have come in flat to negative over the last few months, which I expect is what you are reading.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 27, 2008, 19:27:

gringoloid,

You placed me in No.5 from a few posts I made at the time of the creation of the table, BUT I never said it wouldn't affect Colombia, I even say that in the post you copied.

"in a sharp economic downturn scenario, will the usa and china buy the same amounts of commodities? if the demand decreases, does the price stay the same?"

As to the commodities, they will carry on being sucked in, there is going to be a slowing of the growth in many of the Countries that are sucking in the commodities, but a slowing say from 10% in China to 8% is going to carry on sucking them in.

China is presently planning extra stimulus for its economy, they have plenty of room, they have been tightening things for several years to try and cool it down, they can start un-tightening them as well.

Overall developing Countries have been the driver of the commodity markets, growth in develping Countries is still going to be over 5% this year, so I see no collpase in commidity exports.

I see volume increasing, but price has to many variables like if extra supply is coming to the market, overall I don't think extra supply is coming to the markets for a few years more, so as I have stated before, overall I don't see commodity prices falling away a lot.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 27, 2008, 19:35:

paulr,

You will read views from all sides of financial things, if you are reading the correct financial information.

It depends how you interoperate the reading is the most important thing, or not bother to try and interoperate it at all.

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gringoloid says on Aug 27, 2008, 21:04:

"You placed me in No.5 from a few posts I made at the time of the creation of the table, BUT I never said it wouldn't affect Colombia, I even say that in the post you copied."""
.
. ctg, on the post you say this: "Colombia is unlikely to (be) affected in any meaningful way by the USA problems"

i put the word 'be' in the sentence.

If you take out these two phrases, it seems like a contradiction to me:

you say today...........'I never said it wouldn't affect Colombia'

and you said on March 3,

"Colombia is unlikely to (be) affected in any meaningful way


It really doesn´t matter though, we have a ways to go.........I always said that this is an election year and the recession in the usa won´t be declared by the NERB until maybe after the election.

It was a classic snow job for the dollar to strengthen and oil to fall right before the politcal conventions. I expect more of this kind of nonsense just before election day. The Bundesbank is standing by with 3000 tons of gold to dump on the market.........that´s what I heard anyway.

But after the new president gets in........go ahead and hide all sharp objects.

Depending on how long and how severe the recession will be in the usa ........will determine the effect on Colombia.

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gringoloid says on Aug 27, 2008, 21:09:

ctg, that comment about the length of recessions wasn´t directed towards you.........it was towards rocinante who said that there were 3 recessions in the usa that never affected colombia.

i just wanted to know if all recessions were the same length, severity, and have the same causes.

and if the demand for bananas, coffee, and coal will stay the same as well as the usa paying the same prices if demand goes down and supply goes up.

I´m not arguing this point anymore though as I said before that everything starts after the election.

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nbenjamin says on Aug 27, 2008, 22:25:

CURRENT PREDICTIONS FOR PESO AT YEAR END - STILL TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS: gloid - seems to be on pace for a victory.

Rocinante.............1495
Raaay...................1525
Rubito....................1700
GoinSouth..............1700's (sorry, GS, this may be disqualified for being too vague) Gringoloid...............2062
Pedro......................2090
nbenjamin..........2100
Podborski...............2251

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goin_south says on Aug 27, 2008, 22:46:

Rocinante.... he's cofusing Colombia with Columbus (1492.....)

hummm... four months to go. All I saw today was in the 1800's.
I'd stick to my 1750 prediction. lol

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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bickerss says on Aug 27, 2008, 22:51:

1901 by ex at the moment.

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goin_south says on Aug 27, 2008, 22:54:

oh, carambitaaaaa!!!! jajaja.. it broke THROUGH A CRITICAL (1900) MARK!! as the brokers would say.... jajaj

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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La_Huella says on Aug 28, 2008, 01:16:

The only reason the COP is down vs the dollar is that the Colombian central bank is (desparately and foolishly) buying foreign currencies. This can not and will not go on too much longer. Once they stop, back up goes the peso. You can't have a country making the kind of progress Colombia is making not have its currency appreciate unless you take artificial measures to stop or slow it.

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gringoloid says on Aug 28, 2008, 05:20:

nbenjamin..........you are not in the peso contest.........enrollment ended somtime in February.

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gringoloid says on Aug 28, 2008, 05:35:

there is just about 70 days until the presidential election.............then the fun starts..............

exactly La Huella, i would expand on that and say the entire world central banking system is buying dolllars right now..........it's in the weekly Federal Reserve Report.

I'm going to send a PM Rubito to say I'm now barely in first place in the peso contest........but we have a long ways to go yet.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 28, 2008, 08:01:

gringoloid,

The key word is Meaningfull, I had already said at the time (and a few times since) that I thought it would slow Colombia GDP down by 1-2% (at the time I thought the GDP was 7% for 2007), I didn't want to keep repeating the same information, which I believe would be healthy for Colombia as it was growing to quickly and I would prefer to see growth of about 5% here until the economy got used to it.

So taking off 1-2% pèrcentage points of growth for a year or two I believe is very healthy for Colombia as I said and I don't see it as a problem, so hence why I used that word.

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paulr says on Aug 28, 2008, 08:10:

I rest my case. Good work Nbenja, i couldn´t be bothered looking through the treads for this info.

Pick a number, any number, double it, divide by 3 then blow it out yer ass and you get ....

Rocinante.............1495
Raaay...................1525
Rubito....................1700
GoinSouth..............1700's (sorry, GS, this may be disqualified for being too vague) Gringoloid...............2062
Pedro......................2090
nbenjamin..........2100
Podborski...............2251

"paulr threatens me with death !" pobrecito

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 28, 2008, 08:58:

paulr,

Picking a number for the end of the year is a crap shoot, I tend to predicate a band, but even then some event/s could push a currency up or down for a short a while.

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 28, 2008, 08:59:

gringoloid,

Interesting article:

Report of US currency rescue plan:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9b36c808-7487-11dd-bc91-0000779fd18c.html

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MaFe says on Aug 28, 2008, 09:26:

Yippy!!!!!!!!!!!

"All human actions have one or more of these seven causes: chance, nature, compulsions, habit, reason, passion, desire. "-Aristotle

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gringoloid says on Aug 28, 2008, 13:07:

ctg bound............i accept those figures and definition............i was thinking the same thing myself for the colombian side and i think i wrote that to Robi before.

I also feel that the currency trading on the FX is a crapshoot......I did a big study and tried in a practice account; it makes no sense to me......i'll do options though, that last for 6-9 months.

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gringoloid says on Aug 28, 2008, 13:18:

paul...........the peso contest was just a game created as a result of a former poster here named raaay who was always busting my ass.

he had an import business here and loved it when the peso got stronger but we were all just kidding around with him as we know what he is like in person.

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Brians says on Aug 28, 2008, 13:25:

However Gringoliod you are looking like a regular George Soros at this point:)

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gringoloid says on Aug 28, 2008, 13:31:

brian...........yea, it's odd no one is heeding ole Georges' advice. doesn't he also have some partner that was on tv a lot that helped him create the quantum fund some time ago that has taken all his assets and went to Australia? I forget his name.

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gringoloid says on Aug 28, 2008, 13:36:

but brian..........some numbers came out today that really seem strange.............the Federal Reserve reports that business activity is down in all 12 districts............and then today you have GDP, stock market,etc, up wildly.

Someone on another thread made the best comment about wall street that I've heard in years:

"The markets can act irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

No truer words for today.

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gringoloid says on Aug 28, 2008, 13:46:

ctg bound..........holly molly!

I read that article three times ............one sentence sticks out:

"Policymakers believe that a crisis at a financial institution is less likely to trigger a run on the dollar in an environment of general dollar strength. "

They're talking about the Bear Stearns debacle but this is a good clue that I can add to my indicators. There are a lot of whispers about a big bank collapse coming up before the end of the year.

In fact there is a website.......I'll look for it later..........that is taking bets and giving odds on what big bank that would be.

This is why I like the FT because you would not see this kind of a disclosure in the broader media.

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gringoloid says on Aug 28, 2008, 13:53:

on that peso strength..............i think it is more like just hope that the dollar will strengthen....................i would be one happy guy to see the peso go to 4000..........but I think the Great Pyramid would be turned into a Burger King before that would happen anytime soon.

sorry raay.

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tomtom33 says on Aug 28, 2008, 15:21:

And if the peso approached 4000 anytime soon, I would be on the next plane out of Dodge. Colombia would be in chaos.

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nbenjamin says on Aug 28, 2008, 16:22:

The dollar should continue to go up. U.S. GDP posted 3.3 percent much hire than expected today; the Eurozone continues to push on hard times; the fed can only raise interest rates (literally - it cannot cut them any lower); rates should be raised by the end of Q4; a new president (regardless) of who should encourage investors to get off the sidelines; all of the U.S. hardship is factored into a dollar which is coming off of historical lows against other foreign currency - assuming no terrorist attack or natural catastrophe - I would stick to 2200 by the month of February, and .75 Euro to purchase 1 dollar by the end of the year.

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juli says on Aug 28, 2008, 16:35:

So you are saying that no one should accept the Texas guys offer for 1800 for a dollar?

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nbenjamin says on Aug 28, 2008, 16:50:

Exactly.

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Saltador says on Aug 29, 2008, 07:10:

Peso at 1935 this morning. Life is good!

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RJQuilla says on Aug 29, 2008, 11:34:

Yep, it is up and I am Happy!!! I leave this Tuesday the second of Sept.

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La_Huella says on Aug 29, 2008, 12:30:

What do you guys think will happen when the Colombian central bank stops buying dollars??

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BillBigD says on Aug 29, 2008, 13:11:

20 million dollars isn't much La Huella

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Saltador says on Aug 29, 2008, 13:59:

La Huella,
Probably an instant collapse of the dollar, down to around 500 pesos to the dollar. It will then steadily decline to the point that we are actually 1 to 1, one peso for one dollar. Then if things continue, more declining until it is actually inverted, and it's 500 dollars to one peso, as the once mighty USA trembles before the mighty economic power of Colombia.
Sucks to be us gringos....

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La_Huella says on Aug 29, 2008, 15:53:

20 million dollars per day is enough to make a difference. Don't think for a minute that the peso would still be weakening if it weren't due to government intervention. This is temporary and it will bounce back soon.

If you want pesos, you better get em now as this will be the best chance you will ever get!

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Ctg Bound says on Aug 29, 2008, 17:47:

La_Huella,

Most currencies are weakening against the temporary (I believe) dollar strength, I don't believe the Colombian central bank buying dollars added much to present peso/dollar weakness.

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rocinante says on Aug 29, 2008, 18:01:

"Are you still firm in your belief that it will be 1400 pesos to the dollar in two months? I do give you props for documenting your prediction, however, I don't think it's possible." Saltador

No I am not firm with the time frame. Am I firm with 1400? you bet.

With Colombian Central Bank intervening four times with bold moves since Feb I cannot still support the time line of my claim. But without the intervention we may be at 1450-1500 right about now.

But I stand behind what I said and I will leave my tag line up until November - I don't flip flop. In February when I forecasted the peso/usd at 1500-1600 11 months into the future (after a high of 1400 in November) I did so because I believed and still do that that is what the peso is really WORTH to the USD and that the USD has been overvalued against the peso because of political and economic problems of Colombia's past that are hanging around. Currency, a lagging indicator, takes a while to catch up. Just look at India's past.

I believed that a strengthening of the USD next summer would cause a good spike in USD (up to 1900) but then a slow leveling off back to 1500. Can I substiantiate exact dates? Not really but barring any catastophes I think I can draw the curve on the chart.

I would love to see a 3000 COP/USD but not at the expense of everything Colombia has gained in recent years. So, if Colombia's central bankers can control the currency a la China while Colombia holds its own in the global slowdown and soaring energy that's great - I can retire early.

But how long can the Central bank keep that up and just what is the Central bank going to do with all those dollars? Any smart investor who liked Colombian debt when the rate was 1700 must LOVE that same debt at 1900, afterall the interest rate yield differential is still the same. The central bank has to be eating a great deal. Of course money is flowing out of Colombian debt and over to more secure EU debt with the USD currency swing against the Euro.

But what is goiong to happen when the central bank stops buying USD and Colombia's credit rating goes investment grade?

Fortunately I am prepared to see 800-1000 COP/USD - otherwise I would not be able to live here for the next 50 some odd years. People don't remember but the in the past 20 years the dollar being worth 2000COP didn't happen until the year 2000 - seven and a half years ago. In 1990 the USD was 500COP.

Sanandressi are you reading that - what goes up must come down? I guess by your logic the USD will be fetching 500COP on its way back down!

Am I comparing the 1990s with today? No, but then again I'm not a "What goes up must come down" kind of analyst. The point is currencies move slowly over time but they do move. Countries move as well and economies move too. If everything thing moved in one direction some countries would have been at 0 decades ago. There's the what goes up must come down for you.

If you have extreme currency exposure (earn a foreign currency but live and spend in another) you have to think long term and see a really big slow moving picture.Unless you are living in Colombia for only like 5 years and then moving out.

opening of every year:

1991 -489
1992 -632
1993 -737
1994 -804
1995 -831
1996 -987
1997 -1005
1998 -1293
1999 -1542
2000 -1873
2001 -2229
2002 -2291
2003 -2864 (high 2968)
2004 -2778
2005 -2389
2006 -2284
2007 -2238
2008 -2020 (low 1657 June 17th)

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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goin_south says on Aug 29, 2008, 21:32:

Roci.... can you tell us where Gustav is goin_to beach, as well?

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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gringoloid says on Aug 29, 2008, 22:13:

GS.........are you battening down the hatches?

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billyb says on Aug 29, 2008, 23:39:

GS is making sure all his Sailor Jerry's bottles are capped nice and tight.

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rocinante says on Aug 30, 2008, 08:43:

"We might have been at 4000 if there was no 9/11, no war, no invasion of Iraq, and... you get my point." Señor Kostner

I get your point Byron but major catastrophes aside those scenarios are not likely to happen and are not part of any historical data (before 9/11). If anything when the US surged in 1998-9 the USD/COP was steady, business as usual. I don't think the absence of recent events you mention would have done anything more than slow the growth of the COP, but not Colombia's economy and political reality. Again barring any major catastrophes the COP should slowly grind it out over time.

Is it safe to say the the US stock market gains on average 12%/yr over time? Yes, because it has been doing that historically for 50 years. Silly question.

Is it safe to say over the long run that realestate is your most stable investment with about 0 downside risk and temendous equity and appreciation?

Is it safe to say that if an emerging country increases their place in the global banking and equities arena, already having a solid comodities market, coupled with new found economic and political stability and having natural resources has a chance of their currency settling into a position of real worth vs other currencies ? Against other large economies that may grow but if do, don't have tremendous upside? Again yes - except for China controlling their currency - they practically have more dollars than the US!

Historical data back all of this up.

More silly questions.

Who is more likely to increase by 50 percent their GDP in the next 10 years. Colombia or the US? Whose credit rating is most likely going to be upgraded, Colombia or the US? Whose image of drug cartels and violence is diminishing and reputation increasing....Institutional investors are hungry to invest a chunk of their managed capital (1-2 percent) into the Colombian debt market.... Some will even roll the dice and tap into equities such as Ecopetrol and Bancolombia.

What are your fundamentals?

Since the inception of the realization that "Hey my vacation costs more - this is screwing me" two years ago, I've not heard one person on this forum substantiate as to why they think the USD will be 3000COP other than what goes up must go down ignorance. No one ever backs it up - not that they have to.

Me personally I don't care what the USD/COP does - I'm ready for all scenarios and won't get upset and have a pain in my stomache if it hits 1000 - I'm not that careless to move here and assume that the the FX rate will stay the same forever. For me personally anything over 1500 in my mind is a bargain. I'll take it.

As much as I'm not a wizard and don't have a crystal ball, if am am investing using the FX rate as variable I'll take my fundamental analysis over the "wishing it to be gut" any day.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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rocinante says on Aug 30, 2008, 08:45:

GS, Sorry but Gustav is unpredictable. If I were you I'd move out of the Southern swamp and up to Montana. Historical data says the likelyhood of a hurricane there is almost less than 1 percent.

"World economic indicators point to a democrat winning 2008. It will surely be Obama. Not that the US president actually runs the US." Feb 5, 2008

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goin_south says on Aug 30, 2008, 10:04:

roci...If I move, I ain't goin_north.

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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goin_south says on Aug 30, 2008, 10:05:

think there' s any colombianas in Montana? naaaaawwhh... I'd rather go search the Andez!

Why Colombianitas? Personally... I just don't like pink areolar tissue.

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